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Issued at 4/08/2015 5:48pm. Valid till 7/08/2015 6pm

Nelson Lakes

Mountain
Current avalanche advisory
High Alpine

Above 2000 meters

Alpine

1000 to 2000 meters

Sub Alpine

Below 1000 meters

Avalanche Danger Scale
Avalanche Danger Scale
Report TutorialPrint Reporthear report

Primary Avalanche Danger

Dangerous Aspects
high
Danger Rose
3
Highest Danger Rating
Likelihood
indicator
gauge
Certain
Likely
Unlikely
Size
indicator
gauge
Largest
Small
Trend
indicator
gauge
Increasing
No change
Decreasing
Time of day
clock
Time of day
All day
Alpine level
High Alpine: Above 2000m
Alpine: 1000 to 2000m
Low Alpine: Below 1000m
Description:
There is a possibility of wind slab avalanches on Southeastern half aspects above 1800m remaining on Wednesday. There is weaker snow in the upper layers of the existing snow on the ground that will assist in the formation of slab avalanches. Avoid south eastern aspects above 1800 metres and especialy at the top of the major peaks and highest ranges in the park where greater amounts of snow is expected. Care will also be required on valley floor above Blue lake and the upper valleys in the south western part of the park in particular.

Secondary Avalanche Danger

Dangerous Aspects
high
Danger Rose
2
Highest Danger Rating
Likelihood
indicator
gauge
Certain
Likely
Unlikely
Size
indicator
gauge
Largest
Small
Trend
indicator
gauge
Increasing
No change
Decreasing
Time of day
clock
Time of day
1pm - 4pm
Alpine level
High Alpine: Above 2000m
Alpine: 1000 to 2000m
Low Alpine: Below 1000m
Description:
There is the possibility of loose wet snow avalanches on northern aspects below 1800m where sufficient snow. This will be due to forecasted clear sky's and solar radiation. Care will be required on solar aspects in the afternoon.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Recent Avalanche Activity
Several large slab avalanches have occurred on north and eastern half aspects associated with the last southerly storm. One observed avalanche was size 3 with a fracture line of between 40 and 80 cm and propagated over large terrain features. This is just south of Moss pass on a eastern aspect and has run to valley floor. The weakness that caused this is clearly evident in the snow pack on all but northern aspects hence this occurrence will remain relevant until the weakness that caused it strengthens.
It is anticipated that loose wet avalanches will have occurring below 1800m during this warm north west flow but observations at upper elevations and in the south western part of the park have not been possible.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Current Snowpack Conditions
The snowpack is still very thin particularly in the North and Eastern ranges of the National Park at present. Evidently weaker snow exists below a frozen rain crust with larger faceted crystals with fist resistance producing consistent shear failure when isolated. This will be problematic especially at upper elevations on all aspects except north when significant load is added. Rain at lower elevations has saturated the snow pack. This will refreeze during Tuesday night.

Mountain Weather

Mountain Weather
Fine with some morning and evening cloud. Freezing level around the 1200m mark


MetService
For more information go to: http://www.metservice.com/mountain/index

Forecast by Matt Wilkinson

Mountain Safety Council
Avalanche Forecast Regions:
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Mountainf Safety Council websiteAdventure Smart websiteNew Zealand Avalanche CenterNational Incedent Database website