New Zealand Mountan Safety Council

Mackenzie

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Issued at 29/07/2016 2:31pm. Valid till 30/07/2016 6pm

Aoraki/Mt Cook

Mountain
Current avalanche advisory
High Alpine

Above 2000 meters

Alpine

1000 to 2000 meters

Sub Alpine

Below 1000 meters

Avalanche Danger Scale
Avalanche Danger Scale
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Primary Avalanche Danger

Dangerous Aspects
high
Danger Rose
3
Highest Danger Rating
Likelihood
indicator
gauge
Certain
Likely
Unlikely
Size
indicator
gauge
Largest
Small
Trend
indicator
gauge
Increasing
No change
Decreasing
Time of day
clock
Time of day
All day
Alpine level
High Alpine: Above 2000m
Alpine: 1000 to 2000m
Low Alpine: Below 1000m
Description:
The Danger from windslab avalanching is moderate right now( Friday) but will rise to considerable by tomorrow with the onset of the next round of snowing and blowing. Slopes facing S and E will be the most dangerous but local wind effects could lead to slab build up downwind of terrain features on other aspects as well.

Secondary Avalanche Danger

Dangerous Aspects
high
Danger Rose
3
Highest Danger Rating
Likelihood
indicator
gauge
Certain
Likely
Unlikely
Size
indicator
gauge
Largest
Small
Trend
indicator
gauge
Increasing
No change
Decreasing
Time of day
clock
Time of day
All day
Alpine level
High Alpine: Above 2000m
Alpine: 1000 to 2000m
Low Alpine: Below 1000m
Description:
Low probability, but a high consequence is the order of the day with this one. A persistent weak layer of facets on a crust exists on SE 1/4 aspects above about 2000m. It can be found buried anywhere from 70 cms to a meter or more down. This layer is gaining strength in those places where it has been observed recently. The chance of triggering a slide on it has probably retreated to just a few very steep unsupported slopes but given recent events, such as the large avalanche on the Remarkables that ran on a similar layer, it would pay to consider the risk and avoid terrain such as the Murchison Headwall, Starvation saddle, Upper Mannering etc.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Recent Avalanche Activity
Storm and windslab avalanches at size 2 have run over the last couple of days on S and E aspects observable from Mt Cook village.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Current Snowpack Conditions
Up to 70 cms of new snow has fallen on the divide over the last three days. NW to SW winds have shifted this snow, building windslab on S and E aspects. Areas exposed to the wind will, in some places, be stripped back to hard old crusts.Instabilities are likely to exist amongst the several generations of windslab in the upper layers of the pack. Deeper down on shady slopes an old weak layer of facets on a rain crust is gaining strength, Triggering a slide on this layer is becoming increasingly unlikely but the size and consequence of anything that does run will be heavy.

Mountain Weather

Mountain Weather
Continued unsettled westerly weather and snowfall will keep the risk of wind and storm slab alive for the next few days.


MetService
For more information go to: http://www.metservice.com/mountain/index

Sliding Danger

Slide For Life
Exposed windward slopes could be stripped back to icy crusts. Make sure you're carrying axe and crampons if you intend to travel in these areas.

Forecast by Trevor Streat

Avalanche Forecast Regions:
Mountain Safety Council managed websites
Mountainf Safety Council websiteAdventure Smart websiteNew Zealand Avalanche Center