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Issued at 25/11/2014 2:57pm. Valid till 28/11/2014 6pm

Aoraki/Mt Cook

Mountain
Current avalanche advisory
High Alpine

Above 2000 meters

Alpine

1000 to 2000 meters

Sub Alpine

Below 1000 meters

Avalanche Danger Scale
Avalanche Danger Scale
Report TutorialPrint Reporthear report

Primary Avalanche Danger

Dangerous Aspects
high
Danger Rose
4
Highest Danger Rating
Likelihood
indicator
gauge
Certain
Likely
Unlikely
Size
indicator
gauge
Largest
Small
Trend
indicator
gauge
Increasing
No change
Decreasing
Time of day
clock
Time of day
All day
Alpine level
High Alpine: Above 2000m
Alpine: 1000 to 2000m
Low Alpine: Below 1000m
Description:
With the intense new rain loading and saturation of the snow pack in the initial period of this newest storm and the freezing level at first being around 3000m we can expect a high likelihood of wet slab activity in the west and close to the divide. With this wet loading it can easily overcome the previous ok bonding of the surface crust and step down to the weaker loose grains observed before. These type of slides can occur on any aspect and can run on lower angled terrain than most other types of avalanche.

Secondary Avalanche Danger

Dangerous Aspects
high
Danger Rose
4
Highest Danger Rating
Likelihood
indicator
gauge
Certain
Likely
Unlikely
Size
indicator
gauge
Largest
Small
Trend
indicator
gauge
Increasing
No change
Decreasing
Time of day
clock
Time of day
All day
Alpine level
High Alpine: Above 2000m
Alpine: 1000 to 2000m
Low Alpine: Below 1000m
Description:
As with the wet slab hazard, there will be a high chance of the rain saturated snow losing cohesion and gravity giving it a hurry up. Any steep ground with snow cover is suspect. These slides tend to have a narrow corridor, but can gather up a lot of extra snow as they go and run a long way, including to the valley floor.

Tertiary Avalanche Danger

Dangerous Aspects
high
Danger Rose
4
Highest Danger Rating
Likelihood
indicator
gauge
Certain
Likely
Unlikely
Size
indicator
gauge
Largest
Small
Trend
indicator
gauge
Increasing
No change
Decreasing
Time of day
clock
Time of day
All day
Alpine level
High Alpine: Above 2000m
Alpine: 1000 to 2000m
Low Alpine: Below 1000m
Description:
As the freezing level drops to below 3000m and progressively lower (circa 2000m by Wednesday AM), there will be an increasing danger of storm slab build up lee to the NW. The combination of strong winds, very high snowfall rates and the existing wet slab activity and loaded slopes will product what is likely to be a very impressive and active avalanche cycle. If you were out there you wouldn't see the one that gets you coming, so best to wait it out and observe the results post storm.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Recent Avalanche Activity
One of the most extensive slab avalanche cycles on all aspects from last storm (Saturday). Probably mostly wet slabs given the temperatures mid storm and the fact so many ran on really low angled terrain but no new activity Sundayor Monday other than a few small wet loose sluffs in the plateau region.
Nothing further observed since the storm has rolled in but I'd expect another big cycle to have begun already.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Current Snowpack Conditions
Last weeks storm snow has begun to bond but under the 2-5cm melt/freeze crust, there are plenty of loose grains and still multiple layers making it a relatively complex snowpack for this time year.
With around 250mm of precipitation forecast over the next few days in the West and near the divide, there's going to be a lot of new loading onto the existing snow.

Mountain Weather

Mountain Weather
Nasty!
Heavy rain, will mostly fall as rain to above 2000m at first, then snow as low as 800m by the end of the storm. Strong to severe gales NW winds as well just to keep you fully inside.


MetService
For more information go to: http://www.metservice.com/mountain/index

Forecast by Dave McKinley

Mountain Safety Council
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