New Zealand Mountan Safety Council

Mackenzie

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Issued at 17/08/2017 3:06pm. Valid till 18/08/2017 6pm

Aoraki/Mt Cook

Mountain
Current avalanche advisory
High Alpine

Above 2000 meters

Alpine

1000 to 2000 meters

Sub Alpine

Below 1000 meters

Avalanche Danger Scale
Avalanche Danger Scale
Report TutorialPrint Reporthear report

Primary Avalanche Danger

Dangerous Aspects
high
Danger Rose
4
Highest Danger Rating
Likelihood
indicator
gauge
Certain
Likely
Unlikely
Size
indicator
gauge
Largest
Small
Trend
indicator
gauge
Increasing
No change
Decreasing
Time of day
clock
Time of day
All day
Alpine level
High Alpine: Above 2000m
Alpine: 1000 to 2000m
Low Alpine: Below 1000m
Description:
Heavy snowfall continues on the Divide through to later Friday. Another 60-100cm is possible on top of the 200 or so cm's that has already fallen at high elevations (above 2200m) along the Divide. This is a huge load of dense snow, and there remains the possibility of very large natural storm and windslab avalanches running the full extent of their traditional avalanche paths. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended, and caution is advised for travel in the valley floor, as some avalanches will extend out well below the snowline.

Secondary Avalanche Danger

Dangerous Aspects
high
Danger Rose
3
Highest Danger Rating
Likelihood
indicator
gauge
Certain
Likely
Unlikely
Size
indicator
gauge
Largest
Small
Trend
indicator
gauge
Increasing
No change
Decreasing
Time of day
clock
Time of day
All day
Alpine level
High Alpine: Above 2000m
Alpine: 1000 to 2000m
Low Alpine: Below 1000m
Description:
Many wet slabs and loose wet avalanches will have already released, and the time of greatest danger has probably passed. Further rainfall is forecast however, and the snowpack needs time to drain and refreeze.

Tertiary Avalanche Danger

Dangerous Aspects
high
Danger Rose
3
Highest Danger Rating
Likelihood
indicator
gauge
Certain
Likely
Unlikely
Size
indicator
gauge
Largest
Small
Trend
indicator
gauge
Increasing
No change
Decreasing
Time of day
clock
Time of day
All day
Alpine level
High Alpine: Above 2000m
Alpine: 1000 to 2000m
Low Alpine: Below 1000m
Description:
Any deep weak layers that have been lying dormant deep in the pack may well awaken with very intense loading over the next 24-48 hours. These are most likely to persist on SE aspects at high elevations,(above 2000m). Any avalanching in these layers may well take most of the season's snowpack with them.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Recent Avalanche Activity
Several tongues of dirty looking avalanche debris can be seen coming out from beneath the cloud from Mt Cook Village. All start zones are obscured by continuing poor weather. You can be assured there has been a significant cycle of natural avalanching from the current stormy weather.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Current Snowpack Conditions
110mm of rain has been recorded at Mt Cook Village since 9pm Wednesday night and rain continues to fall. The freezing level peaked at 2300m at 5am Thursday morning, and its now (1430 Thursday) sitting at 1800m. The snow pack will be weak, well soaked and isothermal below about 1800m, while perhaps only the top .5 to 1m of the pack is wet up to around 2200m. Above about 2200m 150 to 200cm of moist snow will have fallen, creating widespread storm and windslab avalanche conditions.

Mountain Weather

Mountain Weather
NW rain continues through to late on Friday with a freezing level gradually lowering to 1600m. Areas above 1400m on the Divide may well see another 60-100cm of snow before conditions ease. A colder SE flow looks to become established on Saturday with potential for low elevation snow.


MetService
For more information go to: http://www.metservice.com/mountain/index

Forecast by Ben Taylor

Avalanche Forecast Regions:
Mountain Safety Council managed websites
Mountainf Safety Council websiteAdventure Smart websiteNew Zealand Avalanche Center